How Badly Do the Braves Actually Need Another Starter?

Depending on how much risk Atlanta wants to carry, the answer could change fast.

We have this winter’s shopping list for the Atlanta Braves.

President of Baseball Operations Alex Anthopoulos, talking to reporters after the season about the year that was and Atlanta’s plans this winter, was very explicit about his plans for this winter. In response to a question from MLB.com’s Mark Bowman about Atlanta’s potential additions this winter, Anthopoulos confirmed that shortstop was “clearly” a need and that bullpen adds were “always on your list”. But he also made a bit of news when he declared that the rotation “is absolutely front burner” for the team to reinforce this winter.

Let’s talk about why.

Unprecedented injuries in 2025

The Atlanta Braves made history last season by being the first team in MLB history to see all five of their Opening Day starters on the 60-day injured list at the same time.

Just to recap:

Reynaldo López (shoulder) - injury date 3/29/2025
AJ Smith-Shawver (UCL) - injury date 5/29/2025
Chris Sale (ribcage) - injury date 6/19/2025
Spencer Schwellenbach (fractured elbow) - injury date 6/29/2025
Grant Holmes (UCL) - injury date 7/27/2025

Chris Sale is the only one of the five who returned this season, being reactivated on August 30th, 2025. So not only did Atlanta have all five OD starters out of commission, it was over a month where the Braves were missing that quintet.

But here’s the thing: That’s an extraordinary situation. Anthopoulos is aware of that, too, as he told us earlier this month. “ We looked at the last seven years prior to this; we had one or two significant injuries each year. We were able to overcome those. And this season we had a lot more than that and we weren’t (able to overcome it).”

Given what we know now, with all but AJ Smith-Shawver (Tommy John surgery) expected back next season, it feels like there will be plenty of starting rotation options available for Atlanta again.¹

Here’s a rough approximation of how the rotation might shake out on Opening Day next year in that scenario:

SP1: Chris Sale
SP2: Spencer Strider
SP3: Spencer Schwellenbach
SP4: Reynaldo López
SP5: Grant Holmes

Assuming everyone is back and healthy, the Braves will have a ton of starting options between their bullpen and Gwinnett, with out-of-options starters like Bryce Elder, Joey Wentz, and (maybe) José Suarez all working in relief, and the Stripers’ rotation led by the uber-impressive Hurston Waldrep.

But they won’t all be healthy, will they?

‘We had one or two significant injuries each year’

Anthopoulos pointed out that the Braves usually have enough rotation depth coming out of spring to get over losing one guy out of their rotation. “We’d lose a (Max) Fried for a significant period, we’d lose a (Michael) Soroka, we’d lose a Kyle Wright, we’d lose a (Spencer) Strider, you know, but if you’re losing five to six, that one’s tough.”

And there’s the rub - even if we assume one injury to the starting five, there’s still five quality options for the rotation with the addition of Waldrep for Opening Day. If we assume Holmes is not able to rehab the UCL and needs surgery, and then someone else gets hurt, the most likely scenario here is that Bryce Elder gets added to the rotation.

Bryce Elder is perfectly fine as a #5 starter, despite the strong negative feelings he can elicit from fans. He went 8-11 with a 5.30 ERA last season, leading the team in both starts (28) and innings (156.1), but that ERA is a bit misleading as he was better more often than not down the stretch. From July through September, he was 6-6 with a 4.89 ERA, putting up nine quality starts in 15 outings but also getting absolutely shelled three times for a combined 22 runs in 11.2 innings.²

So, barring any sort of out-of-the-ordinary injury situations to the existing rotation, it appears that Atlanta should be fine for next season.

But there are still some concerns here

Here’s the thing, though: There absolutely is either a potential injury situation or a “quality of their stuff” concern to virtually every member of the rotation next season.

Veteran Chris Sale is heading into his age-37 season and has had injury situations crop up in both of his last two campaigns, first a back issue that prematurely ended his Cy Young 2024 season and then a fractured ribcage that shelved him for over two months this most recent season. While most of his injuries have been flukish in nature, he’s also dealt with something in every single season of the last seven.

Spencer Strider got a late start to his season after undergoing elbow surgery in 2024 and then missed another month with a hamstring strain. The results were mixed this season, with a career-high 4.45 ERA and a career-low strikeout rate of ‘only’ 24.3%³, but he also gained valuable experience on how to mix in his curveball and changeup to keep hitters off balance. While I’m personally a believer that both his velocity and the induced vertical break of his four-seam fastball will improve with a full and healthy offseason, there’s admittedly a question here.

Spencer Schwellenbach is reportedly fully healed from the fractured elbow that prematurely ended his 2025 season back in late June. But despite the fact that he will have a normal offseason to prepare for his third season in the majors, there’s still a question here. Schwellenbach himself believes the injury was a byproduct of his increased velocity over the summer: “Honestly, from the bump in velo I’ve had in the last month, maybe my elbow just wasn’t ready for it?” To his point, his average four-seam fastball velocity began the season at 96.5 mph but broke 98.2 mph in two separate games shortly before the injury occurred. While I’m not personally concerned about a recurrence of what Schwellenbach admits was a “freak accident”, you have to wonder if he’ll naturally be a bit more cautious next year to avoid more elbow trouble.

Reynaldo López, at least for me, is more of a workload concern than an injury concern. The righthander had shoulder surgery early in 2025 to fix soreness that, it turns out, has been bothering him for several years. No, my concern here is about how many innings he can throw in 2026 and if the layoff essentially ‘resets’ his innings progression. Converting from relief to starting, as López did after signing with Atlanta for the 2024 season, typically means around 130 or so effective innings in the first season in the rotation before more of a normal workload in year two. López hit those marks in year one, pitching 135.2 innings before going on the injured list twice with shoulder and forearm trouble. But after just five innings last season, is he going to be able to get back to 135 innings, and will he be effective in them? The Braves can mitigate this somewhat by either using him in the bullpen as the closer, a role he’s open to but not pushing for, or attempting 2024’s plan of skipping starts and/or building in extra rest days for the rotation.

Of note, Holmes attempted this same bullpen-to-relief conversion, starting with a similar relief total (68.1) to López’s 2023 (66.0), but finishing with even less innings in 2025 (115) before going down with his own elbow issue. Even assuming complete UCL health, his workload capacity in 2026 is an open question, as well, with the team likely not wanting to push him past 140 or 150 frames out of an abundance of caution.

The quantity is there, but the quality is a question

Between the five arms we’ve already named and several of the depth options like Elder, Wentz, Waldrep, and either fringe arms or prospects, finding 162 starts feels like it can be done.

But how good will they be?

I tend to think MLB starters in one of two buckets: Playoff arms and everyone else. Essentially, the question for any pitcher is, ‘Would I let this guy start game three of a playoff series for my team?’

Here’s how I’d break down every rotation candidate under team control for 2026:

Playoff starters: Sale, Schwellenbach, Strider, López, Waldrep
Everyone else: Elder, Wentz, Suárez, Alek Manoah, Nathan Wiles, Austin Cox
Open questions: Holmes, Smith-Shawver, prospects (Blake Burkhalter, JR Ritchie, Didier Fuentes, Lucas Braun, etc)

And therein lies the rub - it’s clear that there are enough arms to get through the regular season (barring another catastrophic injury season like 2025), but how many of that first group can make it through to October? It feels like this has been the real issue that’s plagued Atlanta pitching in the recent postseasons (although it’s dwarfed by the offense forgetting how to hit): The Braves haven’t been able to get enough of their playoff starters to October both healthy and available to pitch. Look at some recent outings in the postseason from the last few years:

2022 NLDS GM 3: Spencer Strider (oblique) goes 2.1 IP, w/ 3H (1 HR), 5ER, 2BB/4Ks
2023 NLDS GM 3: Bryce Elder goes 2.2IP w/ 5H (2HR), 6ER, 1BB/4Ks
2024 NLWC GM 1: AJ Smith-Shawver goes 1.1 IP w/ 4H (1HR), 3ER, 0BB/1K

And so even though the Braves more likely than not have enough arms to make it through to October, it feels like Atlanta should add at least one frontline starter.

The question will be: Will they? Because those guys don’t come cheap.

1. This is assuming that Grant Holmes, who was attempting non-surgical rehab on a minor UCL tear, was successful and will be back next season. The expected timeframe for committing to surgery for Holmes was no later than November.

2

Outside of the blowups, that’s a 3.05 ERA. I know that’s not really how this works, but…yeah. And yes, this is a footnote INSIDE of a sidebar.

3. Still nearly 2% better than the league average of 22.6%