Losing AJ Smith-Shawver is the last thing Atlanta needs right now

Young phenom AJ Smith-Shawver is on the injured list and the prognosis is grim

Life, death, taxes, and elbow injuries for pitchers.

AJ Smith-Shawver was in the third inning of a pretty decent outing against the Philadelphia Phillies when things went awry - he gave up a homer to backup catcher Rafael Marchán, took a liner off the foot from Bryson Stott, and then got Trea Turner to fly out.

A routine flyout doesn’t sound bad, sure, but he immediately left the game after that and was placed on the fifteen-day injured list between games of Thursday’s doubleheader.

What do we know and what does this injury do for the Braves? Let’s talk about it.

The injury looks to be bad

Smith-Shawver’s velocity was fantastic early in this game - touching 99 and averaging 97.1 mph, it was the third straight game where he set a new career high for average velocity on his four-seamer.

But his final two fastballs, both thrown to Turner, came in at just 94.7 mph and 94.2 mph.

From the dugout, Spencer Strider immediately realized something was wrong. He went to pitching coach Rick Kranitz to alert him, who said something to manager Brian Snitker and then went out to remove him from the game.

When Smith-Shawver met trainers on the mound, he could be seen mouthing that he felt something “pop” in his elbow during the at-bat.

Smith-Shawver was removed from the game and sent back to Atlanta for further testing, being placed on the injured list with the dreaded “right elbow strain”. The Braves generally leave the diagnosis vague like that when they suspect a UCL injury but haven’t yet confirmed it.

But despite the lack of confirmation, Snitker knew this was serious. “Doesn’t look good,” Snit told the media, confirming what those of us watching on television thought. “He said, ‘I felt it pop on a pitch to Turner.’ […] When I heard that, it was like, ‘Well, you’re done.’”

Snitker confirmed that this wasn’t something that resulted from the line drive to the foot and that there were no warning signs heading into this start, either. “No, I think it’s just one of them things,” Snitker said. “I don’t think it was anything to do with that. I think that was just something that was a byproduct of (how) his velocity has been really, really good. I don’t think it was that. I think it was just something that was probably destined to happen.”

Depending on the method of repair, Smith-Shawver’s likely out until 2027. Traditional Tommy John surgery is a fifteen-to-eighteen-month rehab process. Some players have returned sooner from the internal brace, but that’s usually either a scenario where the player had an intact UCL (like Spencer Strider) or a position player with less force being exerted on the elbow (Bryce Harper, for instance).

According to an industry database compiled by researcher Jon Regele that Braves Today was given access to, recipients of the internal brace, when combined with a UCL repair, can return in twelve to fourteen months, a shorter timeframe than a traditional UCL reconstruction alone.

The Arthrex InternalBrace™, to explain it succintly, is a tape-like suture that’s anchored into the humerus (the upper bone of the arm) and ulna (the forearm), which remains in place after the athlete returns to play and can absorb some of the load and stress that would normally pass through the elbow joint.

Here’s a video they sent me back when Spencer Strider needed the procedure and I had questions about the logistics of the surgery.

The way this scenario typically plays out for Atlanta is that they’ll get the MRI and, without confirming that it’s a torn UCL, announce that they’re going to send AJ to Dr. Keith Meister in Dallas for further evaluation. When he visits Dr. Meister, that’s typically when they go ahead and have the procedure done, with the Braves announcing after the fact that he has had the procedure.

My thoughts go out to AJ. He’s dealt with so much uncertainty and adversity at such a young age, just to finally begin to establish himself in the majors and then have it taken away from him.

What does this mean for Atlanta?

Let’s look at the ramifications of this, both short and long term.

For this season, that’s another high-quality starting option that’s unavailable. The obvious replacement in the rotation for Smith-Shawver is Bryce Elder, who is now in line to make a start for Atlanta next week at home against the Diamondbacks.

(The immediate replacement for Smith-Shawver was reliever Michael Peterson, who was on Atlanta’s taxi squad and was activated between games of the doubleheader.)

This leaves the rotation, in order of when they appear, as:

Chris Sale
Grant Holmes
Spencer Schwellenbach
Spencer Strider
Bryce Elder

That’s not a bad 1-5, honestly…but it’s shallow. Atlanta’s top options in Triple-A Gwinnett include Davis Daniel, prospect Hurston Waldrep, and recently re-signed Ian Anderson. Other players starting for the Stripers include reliever José Suarez and offseason acquisition Nathan Wiles.

Given the well-documented workload concerns in the Atlanta rotation with Holmes (converting from relief) and Strider (returning from injury), it’s likely that several of those options make a handful of starts for the Braves during the dog days of summer.

In Double-A Columbus, there is a trio of prospects that could work their way to Atlanta by the end of the season, but probably only in an emergency situation - Blake Burkhalter, Lucas Braun, and Ian Meija. (Prospect Drue Hackenberg is on the injured list and struggled prior to that, so he’s unlikely to make his MLB debut this fall.)

There’s also the potential to return Reynaldo López from his shoulder surgery by the end of the season, although given the amount of time he’d need to get back into starting form, it’s possible he is solely used in relief down the stretch.

A potential extended absence from Smith-Shawver impacts López next year, as well.

One less option for next year’s rotation

Assuming no free agent signings, which is never a guarantee - the Braves attempted to sign Jeff Hoffman this winter to convert him to a starter, but a balky medical report led them to back away from the deal - there’s a missing piece from next year’s rotation.

In order of how likely they are to be deployed next year:

Rotation locks
Chris Sale
Spencer Strider
Spencer Schwellenbach
Grant Holmes

Fifth-starter candidates, in order of likelihood of winning the job
Reynaldo López
Bryce Elder
Hurston Waldrep
Ian Anderson
Davis Daniel

But the reason why López is listed as a potential fifth starter instead of with the locks of the rotation? I have a suspicion that Atlanta was going to experiment with putting him in the pen as a back-end reliever, even possibly giving him the closing role after Raisel Iglesias leaves in free agency this winter.

That’s a lot harder to do now.

The Braves have gone on record as wanting seven starters stretched out for spring training and, given that they almost always lose at least one arm to a 60-day IL stint early in the season¹, they’ve ended up using between ten and thirteen conventional starters every season of the last four.

We’ve only listed nine options for the entire season. Prospects will step in and fill the gaps, as well as any potential offseason signings or trade acquisitions. However, we had a double-digit list entering this season, and we’re still talking about a shallow depth pool after just a third of the year.

In short, Atlanta needs to add someone this winter. The good news is that they have flexibility - if they can find the right starter, López can kick to the pen if not needed. If not a starter, López stays in the rotation and the new reliever takes closing or setup duties (depending on what they do with Joe Jiménez next season).

They’ll also get some reinforcements midseason - Ray Kerr was a reliever converting to the rotation that should be eligible to return by the All-Star Break, if not earlier, from his June 2024 Tommy John surgery.

But unlike other offseasons, where the Braves have mostly sat out of the rush to acquire pitching over the winter, AJ Smith-Shawver’s injury means that they’ll need to either trade for or sign at least one high-caliber arm.

The good news is that it’s a great class for that! This winter is expected to have several marquee free agents from the mound, including starters Zac Gallen (Arizona Diamondbacks), a potential opt-out in Kodai Senga (of the New York Mets), and the West Coast duo of Michael King and Dylan Cease (San Diego Padres).

(No, I don’t expect the Braves to sign any of those guys, but they may be able to swoop in and grab a second-tier free agent while everyone else is busy fighting over those premier arms.)

While injuries are a part of the game, this one hurts a little bit more, both because of the severity and what it means going forward. The Braves have work to do.

1. Spencer Strider in 2024, Max Fried and Kyle Wright in 2023, Michael Soroka in 2022 (and 2021), Touki Toussaint in 2021.