Take a Breath on the Braves

Why Atlanta’s situation isn’t as bleak as it feels heading into Opening Day

Look, I get it. The past month has not been fun. It feels like Murphy’s Law has been haunting Atlanta for the last couple of years, and every bit of good news comes with the worry for the next thing to go wrong.

I am not here to tell anyone how to be a fan. If you are frustrated, that is fair. If you are still optimistic, that is fair too. Merriam-Webster defines the term as “an enthusiastic devotee” as the shortened form of ‘fanatic’. Being a fan means being invested, and when things feel like they are trending the wrong way, emotions are going to run high.

But before we go ahead and decide what this season is going to be before Opening Day even gets here, let’s just take a pause and actually look at what is in front of us. You might agree, you might not, but at least hear me out.

The offense is set up for a bounce back

Last season, the Braves’ offense was... fine. Not great, not terrible, just kind of there with a middle-of-the-pack 101 wRC+, .720 OPS, and 19.3 fWAR. The split between the first and second halves tells the real story.

In the first half, the offense struggled. A 96 wRC+, .703 OPS, and 9.4 fWAR all sat below league average. And when you think back on it, it makes sense. Jurickson Profar missed 80 games due to his first PED suspension. Ronald Acuña Jr. only played 45 games while working his way back from the ACL injury. Multiple core hitters severely underperformed their historical norms. It was messy.

Then the second half rolled around, and things quietly started to take a turn for the better. Even with Austin Riley, Sean Murphy, and Acuña still missing significant time, the Braves posted a .324 wOBA, .743 OPS, and a 107 wRC+. It was a top 10 offense in baseball. And they did that while giving real, significant at-bats to guys like Nacho Alvarez Jr., Nick Allen, and a revolving door of Vidal Bruján, Luke Williams, and Jake Fraley. That matters. It shows there was a real underlying improvement, despite having a lineup that is worse than it is today.

That momentum has carried into spring.

Mike Yastrzemski came in as a left field platoon option, but has been thrust into more of an everyday role with Profar out. His 1.512 OPS, 278 wRC+, and six home runs this spring jump off the page, even if you take it with the usual spring training grain of salt.

One of the more interesting developments to me is Michael Harris II. The raw numbers might not wow you, but the approach has jumped off the screen. A higher walk rate (8.9%), fewer strikeouts (11.1%,), and more consistent hard contact is exactly what you want to see from him. If that sticks, it raises his ceiling in a real way.

With Ha-Seong Kim out until at least May, Mauricio Dubón is stepping in as the everyday shortstop. He may not be flashy, but he is steady. And honestly, he is a huge upgrade to the shortstop position regardless. A career .668 OPS and 85 wRC+ hitter, Dubón will provide Atlanta an offensive upgrade from last year while providing Gold Glove caliber defense. And if his .821 OPS and 123 wRC+ this spring are signs of what is to come, the offense gets that much better.

The same goes for Dominic Smith and Kyle Farmer. These are not stars, but they do not need to be. Smith has a career .779 OPS against right-handed pitchers and Farmer a career .767 OPS against left-handed pitchers. Both batters posted higher than a .700 OPS this spring and earned their way into roles to start the season. If they simply do what they have always done in these matchups, the offense can hold its own early in the year.

Austin Riley (1.237 OPS) and Matt Olson (1.078 OPS) look locked in. Drake Baldwin (1.066 OPS) looks ready to build on his Rookie of the Year campaign. And then there is Ronald Acuña Jr. at the head of the lineup, who really does not need an explanation.

At the end of the day, this offense goes as the core goes. If they are healthy and produce as I expect, this is still a lineup that can carry a team.

The pitching is not as bleak as it feels

I said this in my hot takes piece and despite the Strider news breaking less than 24 hours after writing it, I will stand on it. I still believe this rotation can finish as a top ten unit in fWAR.

Last season, the rotation never really recovered as the offense did. Injuries piled up, and by the second half, the Braves were piecing things together with spot starts from just about anyone available. With both Schwellenbach and Smith-Shawver injured, Atlanta had to scrap together 24 starts from Joey Wentz (13), Erick Fedde (4), Carlos Carrasco (3), Cal Quantrill (2), Charlie Morton (1), and Davis Daniels (1).

Atlanta’s success relied on the arms of a struggling Spencer Strider, a rookie in Hurston Waldrep, and a trio of arms we will see again this season in José Suarez, Grant Holmes, and fan-favorite Bryce Elder.

The group might not be what you drew up in February, but it is not hopeless either. There are enough capable arms here to get through the early part of the season at a more than respectable level.

As a staff, the Braves were at or near the top of the league this spring training in WHIP (1.19), ERA (3.55), AVG (.218) and K/BB (2.73).

José Suarez recorded a 33.6% whiff rate and 21.5% strikeout rate. Grant Holmes allowed just two runs across 17.2 innings. Strider looked more and more like himself while striking out 33% of batters faced prior to his oblique strain. And Chris Sale is still Chris Sale.

The bullpen looked to be a real strength as well. Joel Payamps, Aaron Bummer, and Dylan Lee gave up just one hit each and combined for a 0.00 ERA. Robert Suarez looked dominant with a 10.00 K/BB. Raisel Iglesias struck out eight batters and did not allow a single walk.

But the real story of the spring was the emergence of Didier Fuentes and JR Ritchie.

Ritchie allowed just three runs on two hits, striking out 14 batters to just five walks across 12 innings. He may not be starting on the Opening Day roster, but he will find himself in Atlanta very, very soon.

Fuentes, on the other hand, forced the issue. This spring he allowed just one run, two hits, one hit batter, one walk, and 18 strikeouts across 13.2 innings. Being on the 40 man roster after the aggressive call up last season, he earned a spot in the Opening Day bullpen to begin the year.

That is the key here. This does not have to be perfect right now. It just has to hold together. And with Ritchie, Fuentes, and even more prospects down the pipeline, the Braves are more set up to make it through the current injuries than before.

When Strider gets back, and if even one of Schwellenbach or Waldrep returns healthy, this entire conversation around the rotation changes quickly.

The schedule is more forgiving to start the season

This part is being overlooked, but it matters.

Last season, the Braves were thrown into the fire immediately, starting the season on a West Coast trip against the San Diego Padres and the Los Angeles Dodgers. It was not an easy way to get your footing, especially with a team dealing with issues. Even after, the Braves faced the Phillies and Blue Jays, and took another West Coast road trip yet again.

This year, the schedule is different. Atlanta opens at home for the first time in centuries, it feels like. They get a home stretch where they can settle in a bit before hitting the road. That first month is more reasonable, only facing three playoff teams from last season in Cleveland, Philadelphia, and Detroit.

That does not guarantee anything, but it does mean something. All games are equal, but some are more favorable than others. And that matters more than people think.

At the end of the day, none of this matters if the team does not perform. They still have to go out and win ballgames. But this idea that the season is already doomed just does not line up with what is actually on the roster.

Strider should be back soon. Murphy and Kim are not far behind. More reinforcements could follow. And with the financial flexibility they now have with not paying Profar, there is a lot of flexibility to make moves during the season if needed.

I know it is not what you want to hear, and I get that. This team is not perfect. It has flaws. It has risks.

But it also has a very real path to being a really, really good baseball team.

The front office and ownership know the pressure they are under. The players understand the expectations. And despite how the last month has felt, there is still a lot of talent here.

So take a breath. Let’s see what this team actually is before we decide what it isn’t.