Blue Jays loss illustrates the problem with Atlanta's roster construction

The Braves lost despite three homers, one of those rare situations that almost guarantees a victory

The Atlanta Braves lost 6-3 last night to the Toronto Blue Jays after Spencer Schwellenbach suffered the rare blow-up and allowed six runs in just 4.2 innings to take the loss.

(No, I’m not worried about him.)

But what’s noteworthy to me is that the Braves lost despite hitting three home runs, all solo shots. For the majority of baseball history (since 1901), teams that hit three or more homers have won at a 71% rate. Since the start of the 2021 season, the Braves have outperformed even that mark - a .820 winning percentage on an MLB-best 133 games with three or more homers.

But despite more games than anyone in baseball with three or more homers, that .820 winning percentage is good for only the 13th-best mark in baseball.

And it’s because of the roster construction. Let’s talk about it.

An extreme focus on slugging

Everyday podcast listeners are used to hearing this, but here goes: Two things can be true at once.

Thing #1: Hitting home runs is the best way to score runs in modern baseball

This is, objectively, true. In the modern game, where pitchers are throwing harder than ever with more movement than ever, it’s more reliable to hit a homer than it is to try and string together three hits (or a walk and two hits, etc) to get runs on the board.

And the Braves have obviously bought in. Atlanta leads all of baseball with 1,020 home runs from Opening Day 2021 season through the start of yesterday’s action. And it’s not that close - the next team on the board is the Yankees with 964, followed by the Dodgers with 962. Only seven other teams are even over 800 total homers in that span, with the Astros coming in 4th at 860.¹

And at first glance, those numbers correlate to winning. LA leads at a .641 winning percentage, followed by Atlanta at .584, Houston at .582, and the Yankees at .566.

Thing #2: It’s possible to lean too heavily into this approach.

Remember how I said the Braves had 133 games of three or more homers in that same span, winning at a .820 clip? I dug into the losses to see what was in common. While there are some blowouts, like Atlanta losing 16-13 to the Diamondbacks on July 18th, 2023 or 12-10 to the Giants on June 21st, 2022, a lot of these games feature something in common: Solo home runs.

Of the 24-game sample of losses, four times were all of the runs scored via solo homer. Another four games featured only one more run scored than the number of homers, indicative of either a single two-run blast or another run scored somewhere else in the contest.

But a common thread was the Braves not helping themselves.

Like August 30th, 2021 against the Dodgers - a 5-3 loss where the Braves had three solo shots, five other scattered singles, and no walks or stolen bases.

Or July 5th, 2024 against Philly. This one was a 8-6 loss at home where the Braves had a solo shot, a two-run homer, and a three-run homer. They also drew only one walk, had no stolen bases at all, and got only three runners in scoring position all day.

I could go on, but I think you get the picture.

Let’s talk about how to fix it.

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The corner outfield is a mess

And it’s arguably been a mess for a few years now. Left field’s been the real problem child during that stretch, although the numerous knee injuries to Ronald Acuña Jr. means that Atlanta has had to use several different options out there, too.

This season’s current starting duo of Jarred Kelenic and Bryan De La Cruz aren’t getting it done. While Kelenic has walked a lot recently, the pair has combined to go 15-84 at the plate with one homer, one RBI, and five runs scored this season. Even worse, they’re both hitless with runners in scoring position over seventeen at-bats.

It wasn’t supposed to be this way. The Braves thought they finally solved their left field conundrum this offseason with the signing of Jurickson Profar to a three-year deal. He would not only provide some on-base ability, but brought great vibes to the clubhouse.

About that.

Profar’s not coming back until June from his PED suspension (and there’s been stretches where I haven’t thought about him for a week at a time, if I’m being honest.) Even when he returns, he’ll need to get back into game shape and there’s no telling how he’ll perform when he finally does get back out there. Even if he puts it all together quickly and gets back into regular season form, he’s only good for that - he’s ineligible for postseason play this year, should the Braves make it.

I have no idea what Profar’s reception will be like in the clubhouse - he was sent home immediately after the news broke and so I don’t even think the team spoke to him before he was sent out of town. But that’s a problem for July.

In the meantime, what you currently do have in the outfield isn’t working.

How do you fix it with the pieces you have on the roster?

There is a blueprint to follow

One area in which the Braves have seen more offensive production out of a personnel change is at shortstop, where Nick Allen has become the de-facto starter over incumbent Orlando Arcia thanks to a strong spring from Allen (and his new glasses).

Allen is currently tied with Marcell Ozuna for the team’s best batting average at .306. He also leads the team in stolen bases with four.

He predominately bats from the bottom of the lineup - five times from the #8 spot, four times from the #9 spot, and once from the #6 spot.² And in three of the team’s four victories this season, someone from the bottom of the lineup scored, usually Allen.

Listen, here’s the bottom line: If you’re going to have guys in the bottom third of the order that aren’t great hitters, at least make it speedy guys that can wreak havoc on the basepaths and play good defense.

Until Acuña is back (or Alex Verdugo replaces Jarred Kelenic, which I’m predicting to happen when the homestand starts this Friday), one of your outfield spots need to be either Eli White or Stuart Fairchild. The shortstop spot needs to be Nick Allen. Give them the green light to steal or bunt or slash or do whatever they can from the eighth and ninth spots in the order.

Because the top of this lineup has power. They can drive runs in. They just need runners to drive in.

1. If you’re curious, last place is the Pittsburgh Pirates with 611. The Marlins, which was my guess on account of their ballpark and the general terribleness of the roster, is 28th at 629.

2. That was the weird game in LA versus the Dodgers where Allen, Fairchild, Tromp, and White were all in the lineup.