What the Atlanta Braves saw in reliever Buck Farmer
The Braves have added another reliever on a minor league deal, but this one might be the most intriguing of all.
There are a LOT of relievers vying for a spot in the Atlanta Braves bullpen. Alex Anthopoulos, speaking to the media on Friday, confirmed that not only is the pen where they’ll need to have the hardest conversations between now and Opening Day, but that roster churn will likely continue into the season.
(You can watch the full press conference over on our YouTube channel)
To our list of NRIs from two weeks ago is a new name - Buck Farmer, formerly of the Cincinnati Reds. What did the Braves see in him and what are his chances of making the Opening Day roster?
Not really sure why this guy had to sign a minor-league deal
It’s a sign of weird times in baseball that Farmer had to even settle for a non-guaranteed deal after pitchers and catchers had already reported.
Pitching 71 innings across 61 appearances (including one start) for a 4th-place Reds team, Farmer finished with a 3.04 ERA, picking up three wins and a save while putting up 1.7 WAR.
ONE POINT SEVEN WAR.
And he signed a minor league deal. Really.
No one would give this dude $1M to sit in the middle of their pen?
If I had to guess: His FIP was 4.00 and his xERA was 4.14, so there were probably a few teams worried about regression from the 33-year-old.
But still, he had almost two WAR without amassing a ton of saves and there’s reason to think he can get even better in 2025.
Not very sinker/slider of you, Buck
Previously a four-seam/slider guy, Farmer added a sinker in 2024 and it immediately cannibalized half of his four-seam usage.1
But it still wasn’t…good. The sinker allowed a .268 batting average last season, and that was relatively lucky - the expected batting average allowed was .315. It had a similarly lucky slug, too - an actual .423 versus an expected .516.2
It also didn’t lead to a significant increase in groundballs, either - he went from a 9th percentile 33.5% GB rate in 2023 to an 18th percentile 36.8% last year. That’s practically a rounding error.
But, this “add a new pitch” stuff doesn’t work in a vacuum - Farmer’s slider, which became his primary pitch by usage after dividing the two fastballs, improved to a career-best .138 batting average allowed (versus an xBA of .154) and an unlucky .313 slug (xSLG .284).
And say it with me: What does Atlanta like guys with outlier pitches to do?
THROW THEM MORE.
Farmer’s base fastball going from one with an 80 Stuff+ (four-seamer) to one with a 93 Stuff+ (sinker) allowed his excellent slider (113 Stuff+) and average changeup (98 Stuff+) to be more effective. What does that slider do if it pushes from 35% usage to 45%? I don’t know, but I’m willing to bet this front office has already modeled it and we’ll find out in Grapefruit League action.
Where would he slot into the pen?
Assuming he makes the Opening Day roster, to me he’s in that same “second tier” of arms behind the main back-end guys, right there with Angel Perdomo. He was mostly used in low-leverage situations by Cincinnati last year, making 50 appearances in those situations as compared to 32 in medium leverage and 14 in high leverage.3
But his best usage was in those medium leverage situations - in 32 games and 59 plate appearances, he allowed just a .143 average and .557 OPS.
Essentially, he held opposing hitters to Orlando Arcia-level numbers. You’d take that, right?
That’s the same role I envision here, although he does have some experience as an emergency or fill-in closer with six career saves. Of relievers expected to be in Atlanta’s pen on Opening Day not named Raisel Iglesias, only Pierce Johnson (with two) has saved a game for the Braves.4
Who loses out the most by Atlanta’s addition of Farmer?
In all likelihood, the NRIs.
My new prediction for the pen would have Farmer as the only NRI in there, with Rule 5 pick Anderson Pilar (who has some starting experience) moving to the long relief role as the final man in. Angel Perdomo would be the recipient of the third lefty slot behind the main quintet of Raisel Iglesias, Pierce Johnson, Aaron Bummer (L), Dylan Lee (L), and Daysbel Hernandez.
All bets are off if Atlanta goes with a six-man rotation, however - that jeopardizes someone in the final three’s role, and that may be a scenario where you see the team try to either “float” an extra reliever by having Perdomo do a rehab stint of up to 30 days or returning Pilar to the Marlins organization.
He went from 43.1% usage of the 4S in 2023 to 24.3% sinker and 19.9% four-seam in 2024
Both of the fastballs were also suffering from a loss of velo, as well - he went from an average FB velo of 93.9 mph in 2023 to 92.6 last year.
Yes, those don’t add up to give you 61 total appearances. The leverage of an outing can change dynamically if runners reach, score, or are called out, so several outings overlap on the leverage index.
Joe Jiménez has 23 career saves, including three for the Braves, but he’s likely not returning until the trade deadline (or later).
Any thoughts of AJ SS or Waldrep spending time in the BP? Seems like both have a strong two pitch mix that would play up in that role? I'm also thinking that puts them in the Fried/Strider track of cutting their teeth in the majors learning how to attack every hitter.